On September 15, affected by the news that the coal industry is expected to usher in a rising market, the A-share coal sector has experienced abnormal movements. As of the press release, Anyuan Coal（600397）(600397.SH)has risen by the limit，Shanxi Jiaomei（000983）(000983.SZ)has risen by more than 8%，Lu'an Huaneng（601699）(601699.SH)、Huaibei Mining（600985）(600985.SH)、Pingmei（601666）(601666.SH)、Shanmei International（600546）(600546.SH)、China Shenhua（601088）(601088.SH)and other stocks rose.

　　Against the background that Europe is facing a shortage of natural gas supply, coal has regained its popularity. In 2022, the prices of the three major international thermal coal will continue to hit historical highs. The spot price of Newcastle thermal coal broke the $460 mark last week. The European ARA port reached $408 on June 24, while the South African Richard port was still at the highest price level in history as of August 5. The main contract of domestic overnight coking coal futures rose by more than 4%.

　　The research report of Huafu Securities indicates that the supply and demand fundamentals: the supply side is stable and rising, and the demand side is recovering slowly. On the supply side, China's coal supply side mainly comes from two channels: domestic coal production and international coal import. In terms of domestic supply, since 2022, the output of raw coal has shown a year-on-year upward trend, and the production of raw coal is further concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. International coal resources are still tight, and the role of import side supply is limited. On the demand side, coal still dominates energy consumption, and the total coal consumption is growing slowly. With the easing of the epidemic situation, the policy of stabilizing the economy will promote the gradual resumption of industrial production, further increase the demand for electricity, and the demand for electricity coal will be high in the short term. At the same time, the demand of the steel industry is expected to rise, and the coke market is adjusted slightly. From the perspective of policy: In 2022, the country will attach great importance to the policy of ensuring supply and price stability. At the press conference of "accelerating the construction of an energy power and fully ensuring energy security" held in July, it was proposed to uniformly extend the policy of ensuring supply of coal to March 2023 and fully release advanced production capacity. The 2022 National Energy Work Conference also emphasized that coal should continue to play its role as a "ballast". To sum up, the coal industry has maintained a balance between supply and demand in the near future. With the resumption of production and the arrival of the downstream industry peak season, it is expected to usher in an upward trend.

Reprinted from Zhitong Finance

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